Birthday Wish

Rumor has it that I was born today (minus 52 years). When you’re gluten-free and dairy free birthday cakes are a few and far between, but I’ve decided that — with or without birthday candles — I’m registering a birthday wish.

Susan says that it’s bad luck to disclose a birthday wish to others, but I’m not so sure. I’m gambling that sending my birthday wish out to the universe just might be my best chance of making it come true.

That photograph above, although melancholically alluring, is an unsettling souvenir. Recorded on my birthday thirteen years ago it remembers the final days before Rosslyn’s boathouse was inundated. Most everyone in these parts remembers the history high water levels that persisted and persisted and persist. My 2011 Lake Champlain flood retrospective offers a glimpse into that challenging summer.

The last nine months or so have marked a return to unusually high water levels on Lake Champlain. As you can see in this USGS screen grab, current lake levels (blue line) have been hearing pretty dramatically from the historic mean (gray line) since July of last year.

That’s the unsettling trend that adds angst to the otherwise mostly positive experience of lakeside living. But recently a more encouraging trend is beginning to bend the arc of optimism. First check out the last 30 days. Leg levels were looking promising up until a couple of weeks ago. Then… Boom! They went. Over the last week gravity seems to be winning once again. 

If you zoom in to the last week you’ll see that we’ve actually crossed the historic mean. While it’s too early to celebrate, and all of our North Country neighbors will warn you that spring flooding concerns are still 100% present, I’m choosing hopefulness. Not yet confidence, but fingers crossed-crossed optimism.

Could Lake Champlain water levels still rise in the weeks ahead? You bet! In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising at all. After all, there are plenty of gray, rainy days in the forecast.

But I’m a glass is half full kind of guy. And, so far as I know, nobody has ever died of optimism! So, here’s wishing that Lake Champlain water levels will continue to fall and Rosslyn’s boathouse will stay dry!